UFC On Fox 1: Velasquez Vs. Dos Santos – The Prediction
We’re less than 24-hours away from the biggest fight in UFC history. UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez will take on Junior dos Santos in the promotion’s big debut on network television. The implications go far beyond who the champ will be Sunday morning. A fight worthy of Monday morning water cooler conversation will send the UFC—and by extension, MMA—into the hearts and minds of millions of Americans.
The Breakdown
For all intents and purposes, this is a battle of two undefeated knock out artists. Velasquez is a perfect 9-0 and while dos Santos has one blemish on his record, the loss came in 2007; he’s been flawless inside the Octagon. Under his belt are wins against Roy Nelson, Mirko Cro Cop, Stefan Struve and Shane Carwin. That’s one hell of a resume. Velasquez on the otherhand owns wins over Cheick Kongo, Antonio Nogueira, Ben Rothwell and Brock Lesnar.
Both men can take a punch and dish it out. Velasquez stopped eight of nine oppnents and dos Santos finished in 11 of his victories. Strikers they are, but the men are very different when it comes to throwing hands.
dos Santos relies primarily on his boxing ability. He used a stiff jab to take Shane Carwin out of his element at UFC 131 and the mix of technical precision and power punches were on display in a win over Roy Nelson last year. If Velasquez and dos Santos strapped on a pair of 16-ounce gloves and got in on in the squared circle, we’d likely have a new champion.
But MMA is a multifaceted sport and Velasquez has a penchant for taking full advantage of the rules. With no formal striking training until landing at American Kickboxing Academy (Velasquez was a standout wrestler at Arizona State University), the tattooed champion seems a natural when it comes to using his hands and feet. Velasquez is more than proficient with his hands, but also likes to use his knees, elbows and feet to keep opponents guessing. Because of the variety, you’ve gotta give a slight edge to the champion.
The X factor here is dos Santos’ takedown defense. If he can keep the fight standing, it’ll be a fight to the finish. However, dos Santos has long trained jiu-jitsu with the Nogueira brothers. How good he is in combat is anyone’s guess.
Prediction
A week ago, this writer had a dream that dos Santos dropped Velasquez and ended the fight in a mere ten seconds. While Mike Tyson-esque finishes are usually exciting in boxing, it’d likely be a colossal disappointment if the fight ended south of the minute mark. Don’t look for that to happen here.
The magic of reality says this one is likely to go—at least—a couple rounds. There is one glaring hole in dos Santos’ game: cardio. His bout with Roy Nelson was entertaining partially because both guys pace slowed and they were able to stand in front of each other and tee off. Velasquez will give no such opportunity.
The reality is simply this: dos Santos best chance at victory is early on. Velasquez can set a pace that resembles a sprint; dos Santos will look more like a distance runner. And while finishing a 25-minute fight is note worthy, MMA offers no consolation prize for second place.
Watch for the champ to grind this it out and introduce MMA to the mainstream.
Velasquez via decision.
